The continuity of life and the natural environment

Chapter 1IntroductionWater can be considered as one of the basic elements back uping the continuity of life and the natural environment, an indispensable constituent in industry, a consumer point for homo and besides animate beings and a vector for domestic and industrial pollution. Assorted model that includes Acts of the Apostless, Torahs and guidelines for the control of aquatic substances, the quality of bathing, surface and imbibing Waterss and wastewater control had been established since the consciousness on H2O pollution became a sensitive issue. Malaysia is a underdeveloped state that moves towards the vision 2020. Unfortunately the development that had been carried throughout the state besides contributes bad impact to the environment particularly H2O quality. Water is a critical for all facets of human and ecosystem endurance and wellness. Therefore, its quality is besides of import. Water quality refers to the composing of a H2O sample. The reading of informations may be hard and drawn-out and ratings of H2O quality parametric quantities are necessary to heighten the public presentation of an assessment operation and develop better H2O resources direction and program. Water quality patterning involves the anticipation of H2O pollution utilizing mathematical simulation techniques. In fact, classical process-based modeling attack could supply comparatively good anticipation for H2O quality parametric quantities ; nevertheless, those theoretical accounts rely on a big set of informations and needed batch of input information s that is frequently unknown. A river is defined as any natural watercourse of H2O that flows in a channel with defined Bankss ( Encyclopedia Britannica ) . The beginning of a river may be a lake, a spring, or a aggregation of little watercourses, known as headwaters. From their beginning, all rivers flow downhill, typically ending in the sea/ocean as sketched in. In some instances a river flows into the land or dries up wholly before making another organic structure of H2O. A river is a constituent of the H2O rhythm. A river ‘s H2O is usually confined to a channel, made up of a creek bed between Bankss. Most rainfall on land base on ballss through a river on its manner to the ocean. Smaller side streams that articulation a river are feeders. Normally larger watercourses are called rivers while smaller watercourses are called brooks, Brookss, rills, rivulets, and many other footings, but there is no general regulation that defines what can be called a river. Harmonizing to JPS Malaysia ( 2009 ) , besides su ngai, there are besides many other footings mentioning to river ; including alor ( Kelantan ) , carok ( Kedah ) , parit ( Johor ) , batang ( Sarawak ) and terusan. In Malaysia, the H2O within a river by and large originates from precipitation through surface overflow, groundwater recharge and release of stored H2O in natural or semisynthetic reservoirs, such as wetlands, pools or lakes. A river conveys H2O by invariably fluxing perpendicular to the lift contours, thereby bring forthing kinetic energy from its possible energy. Where a river flows over comparatively level countries, the river will flux indiscriminately, get down to organize cringles and flow through the field by gnawing the riversides. Sometimes the river will cut off a cringle, shortening the channel and organizing a horseshoe lake from the cut off subdivision. Rivers that carry big sums of deposit develop deltas at their oral cavities. Saline waters that semen from the ocean will organize a new estuary. In this research, Principle Component Score were implemented to better river H2O quality anticipation theoretical account that uses Artificial Neural Network as a nucleus analytical method. Principle Component Analysis ( PCA ) is recommended as an explorative tool to bring out unknown tendencies in the informations. When applied on conditions, PCA will research correlativities between samples or conditions. Note that because the end of PCA is to & A ; lsquo ; sum up ‘ the informations, it is non considered a constellating tool. PCA does non try to group informations by user-specified standards as does the constellating methods. Harmonizing to Shlens ( 2009 ) , PCA is a standard tool in modern informations analysis – in diverse Fieldss from neuroscience to computing machine artworks – because it is simple, non-parametric method for pull outing relevant information from confounding informations sets. With minimum attempt PCA provides a roadmap for how to cut down a complex information set to a lower dimension to uncover the sometimes concealed, simplified constructions that frequently underlie it. In H2O quality mold, one attack to the quandary of limited resources and limited cognition is to construct prognostic theoretical accounts that characterize as much of this cognition, or mechanism, as possible and so depend to a great extent on these theoretical accounts for determination. Unfortunately, experience indicates that this scheme consequences in theoretical accounts with high prognosis errors or uncertainness. An alternate scheme is to construct every bit simple as a theoretical account that do non number in either resources or scientific apprehension. Unfortunately for this type of theoretical account, another job arises which is job of reference is non straight identified or tackled. New attack such as Artificial Intelligence ( AI ) techniques has proven their ability and pertinence for imitating and patterning assorted physical phenomena in the H2O technology field. In extra, Artificial Neural Network ( ANN ) captures the embedded spatial and unsteady behaviour in the investigated job utilizing its architecture and nonlinearity nature compared with the other classical modeling techniques. Recently, applications of ANNs in the countries of H2O technology, ecological and environmental scientific disciplines have been used intensively for anticipation and prediction in a figure of water-related countries, including H2O resource survey ( Liong et al. , 1999 ; 2001 ; Muttil and Chau, 2006 ; El-Shafie et al. , 2008 ) , environmental scientific discipline ( Grubert, 2003 ) and ( Hafizan et al. , 2004 ; 2006 ; 2008 ; 2009 ) . Artificial nervous webs are made up of complecting unreal nerve cells ( programming concepts that mimic the belongingss of biological nerve cells ) . Artificial nervous webs may either be used to derive an apprehension of biological nervous webs, or for work outing unreal intelligence jobs without needfully making a theoretical account of a existent biological system. The existent, biological nervous system is extremely complex and includes some characteristics that may look otiose based on an apprehension of unreal webs. The premiss in support of the usage and development of mechanistic H2O quality simulation theoretical accounts is that the most accurate and flexible prognosiss result from a theoretical account that right describes elaborate procedures. These theoretical accounts are accurate ( it is believed ) because the theoretical accounts are assumed to right qualify procedures, and they are flexible because detail-rich prognosiss can ever be aggregated over space/time ( but non frailty versa ) if necessary. The demand to calculate implies that extrapolation beyond the bounds of observation may be necessary, and this is believed to be dependable merely if mechanisms are right characterized. Mechanistic advection-diffusion-reaction ( transport-fate- effects ) theoretical accounts are typically big in order to imitate procedures. Despite this, they are still rather simple in the description of complex chemical and biological procedures, comparative to the existent universe. For illustration, in these theoretical accounts, virtually all chemical reactions are assumed to be first order, and one or at most a few species of beings are modeled at each degree of the nutrient concatenation. Small-scale temporal and spacial declaration gives the semblance of significant cognition. In fact, it is non complexness in theoretical account description that leads to prediction truth ; instead, it is the underlying scientific cognition and experimental grounds that provide the footing for accurate anticipation. Unfortunately, current pattern suggests that cognition and observation may back up accurate anticipation at merely a really gross degree of item. For illustration, the anticipation from a simple theoretical account for one-year mean entire N concentration in a H2O organic structure may hold less information but besides may hold less prognostic uncertainness than that for a big theoretical account of day-to-day concentrations of organic and inorganic signifiers of N. Simply stated, when less item is required in a prognostic theoretical account, the end point prognosis is likely to be less unsure.1.1 Significance of surveyThe result of this research would be that beginning allotment of river H2O quality by implementing integrating of APCS-ANN will be more effectu al instead than utilizing APCS and ANN individually.1.2 ObjectiveTo place the most important H2O quality parametric quantity that affects the surface H2O quality of Kedah River.To implement integrating of APCS-ANN in analysing secondary informations of Kedah River H2O quality.To place the most important activities that affects the H2O quality parametric quantities and apportions or classifies beginnings harmonizing to their part per centum.Chapter 2Literature ReviewIn an ideal universe, determination shapers would hold entree to hone anticipations of the impacts of their actions at any spacial or temporal graduated table and any degree of substantial item. In the existent universe, scientific anticipations are unsure, and resources are limited. In an ideal universe, determination shapers would hold clip and disposition to get perfect cognition of results. In the existent universe, determinations are made with limited clip for understanding. In H2O quality mold, one attack to the quandary of limited resources and limited cognition is to construct prognostic theoretical accounts that characterize as much of this cognition, or mechanism, as possible and so depend to a great extent on these theoretical accounts for determination. Unfortunately, experience indicates that this scheme consequences in theoretical accounts with forecast uncertainness. An alternate scheme is to construct simple theoretical accounts that do non revenue enhancement either resources or specific scientific apprehension. Unfortunately, these theoretical accounts may non straight address the job of concern. This quandary provides the principle for the principle for the survey presented in this survey, which is an scrutiny of the utility of APCS-ANN coaction for beginning allotment. An of import challenge for scientists is to develop analytical tools that could be used to understand the interaction and behaviour of factors involved in a multidimensional procedure such as primary production, and to supply the necessary tools for monitoring and direction of resources. Modeling is regarded as an of import analytical tool for biological and ecological surveies ( Cacho, 1997 ; Tufford and McKeller, 1999 ) . One of the attacks which receives turning involvement and is going popular in ecological and environmental mold is the constituent analysis, e.g. PCA ( Vink and Van Der Zee, 1997 ; Winkels et al. , 1998 ; Martinez et al. , 1998 ; Ferreira et al. , 1999 ; Barbieri et al. , 1999 ; Perkins and Underwood, 1999 ; Zimmerman and Canuel, 2001 ; Flink et al. , 2001 ; Chen and Mynett, 2003 ) . Harmonizing to Elliott et al. , ( 2000 ) , the demand for feasible theoretical accounts of lake and reservoirs ecosystems has grown systematically, chiefly due to economic involvement s of H2O industry in direction and limnologists scientific wonders. Models are considered to be indispensable tools in surveies of big reservoirs due to reservoir complexness in footings of morphometry, hydrology, ecology and internal and external forcing maps ( Tufford and McKeller, 1999 ) . One of the attacks which receives turning involvement and is going popular in ecological and environmental mold is the constituent analysis, e.g. ( PCA ) ( Vink and Van Der Zee, 1997 ; Winkels et al. , 1998 ; Martinez et al. , 1998 ; Ferreira et al. , 1999 ; Barbieri et al. , 1999 ; Perkins and Underwood, 1999 ; Zimmerman and Canuel, 2001 ; Flink et al. , 2001 ; Chen and Mynett, 2003 ) . Main concern of the constituent analysis is to understand manner of action or behaviour of constituents of a system and its subsystems ( Cacho, 1997 ; Martinez et al. , 1998 ; Winkels et al. , 1998 ; Barbieri et al. , 1999 ; Petersen et al. , 2001 ; Wannaz et al. , 2003 ) . Main concern of the constituent analysis is to understand manner of action or behaviour of constituents of a system and its subsystems ( Cacho, 1997 ; Martinez et al. , 1998 ; Winkels et al. , 1998 ; Barbieri et al. , 1999 ; Petersen et al. , 2001 ; Wannaz et al. , 2003 ) . PCA, which is widely used in aquatic environmental and ecological mold surveies, offers an nonsubjective method for managing big set of biotic and abiotic informations and an assistance in cut downing the complexness of multidimensional system by maximization of constituent lading discrepancy and riddance of invalid constituents ( Petersen et al. , 2001 ; Bengraine and Marhaba, 2003 ; Loska and Wiechula, 2003 ) . PCA farther enables one to pull out explainable information to explicate physicochemical parametric quantities of a system ( Barbieri et al. , 1999 ) by explicating the variance-covariance construction of the original variables. In recent old ages, PCA has been employed either entirely or in combination w ith other methods to pattern biological and ecological procedures ( Vink and Van Der Zee, 1997 ; Winkels et al. , 1998 ; Martinez et al. , 1998 ; Ferreira et al. , 1999 ; Barbieri et al. , 1999 ; Perkins and Underwood, 1999 ; Zimmerman and Canuel, 2001 ; Flink et al. , 2001 ; Ansari et al. , 2003 ; Chen and Mynett, 2003 ) . Multivariate analysis techniques & A ; mdash ; PCA, bunch analysis, multiple arrested development analysis & A ; mdash ; allow reading of big and complex informations matrices for better apprehension of H2O quality and ecological position of the environment. Several multivariate theoretical accounts are used for beginning allotment surveies, as they pinpoint the possible factors or beginnings that influence the H2O quality ( Morales et al. , 1999 ; Wunderlin et al. , 2001 ; Petersen et al. , 2001 ; Raghunath et al. , 2002 ) . Pollution governments use theoretical accounts to develop optimum control schemes for environmental pollutants ( Olmez et al. , 1994 ) . Receptor theoretical accounts infer parts from different beginning types utilizing multivariate measurings taken at one or more receptor locations ( Olmez et al. , 1994 ; Watson et al. , 2002 ) . PCA and absolute chief constituent tonss ( APCS ) are the parts of multivariate theoretical account ( Watson et al. , 2002 ) . The ai m of this probe was to quantify the parts of the beginnings impacting the H2O quality of Kedah River. Therefore, big informations collected over assorted seasons was subjected to multivariate analysis. Multivariate statistical theoretical accounts, as auxiliary methods to dearly-won field studies, have been successfully used to place anthropogenetic pollution and beginning profiles in surface H2O, dirts and deposits ( Shine et al. , 1995 ; Facchinelli et al. , 2001 ; Simeonov et al. , 2003 ; Astel et al. , 2006 ; Han et al. , 2006 ; Wang and Qin 2006 ; Zhou et al. , 2006 ) . For illustration, PCA allows the transmutation and visual image of complicated datasets into meaningful variables without losing utile informations ( Pere & A ; ague ; -Trepat et al. , 2006 ) . However, multivariate analyses are sensitive to outliers and the non-normal distributions of geochemical datasets ; therefore, it is indispensable to analyze the chance distributions of all variables and execute appropriate informations transmutations ( Johnson and Wichern 2002 ) . Yet few surveies have considered these of import factors ( Pere & A ; ague ; -Trepat et al. , 2006 ) . In add-on, receptor modeling of assort ed possible pollution beginnings has been widely used in legion beginning apportionment surveies of air pollutants ( Watson et al. , 2002 ; Hopke 2003 ; Song et al. , 2006 ) . As eigenvector theoretical account, multivariate additive arrested development of absolute chief constituent tonss ( MLR-APCS ) has been applied to the allotment of H2O pollution beginnings ( Simeonov et al. , 2003 ; Pekey et Al. 2004 ) , showing the dependability of using receptor theoretical accounts to the aquatic environment. The PCA theoretical account was expressed as follows ( Johnson and Wichern 2002 ) : Zji = & A ; sum ; wjk pki where I = 1, †¦ , n samples ; J = 1, †¦ , thousand elements ; k = 1, †¦ , thousand beginnings ; Zji is the standardised concentration ; and wjk and pki the factor burdens and factor tonss, severally. To better the reading of pollution forms, Kaiser ‘s VARIMAX extraneous rotary motion of PCs was performed to maximise the simpleness of the entire burdens ( Brumelis et al. , 2000 ; Pere & A ; ague ; -Trepat et al. , 2006 ) , and based on the revolved PCA, we identified the latent pollution beginnings and beginning profiles. The MLR-APCS assumed a additive relationship between the entire mass concentration and the parts of each component ( Thurston and Spengler 1985 ) . Beginning parts to the entire concentration were estimated with MLR utilizing the de-normalized ( APCS ) qi values as follows: Mi = & A ; delta ; 0 + & A ; amount ; & A ; zeta ; K ( APCS ) ki = & A ; delta ; 0 + & A ; amount ; & A ; zeta ; K ( pki + & A ; sum ; Bkj& A ; # 8121 ; j / & A ; delta ; J ) WhereXj and& A ; delta ; j are the average concentration and the standard divergence for element J, severally,Mi the ascertained mass concentration in sample I,& A ; zeta ; k the additive arrested development coefficients and& A ; delta ; 0 the part of unidentified beginnings. PCA ( Vandeginste et al. , 1998 ; Malinowski, 1991 ; Martens and Naes, 1989 ) is an of import tool used to analyze informations matrices, which extracts extra information that would otherwise be unaccessible. It seeks the similarities between the columns and rows of any informations matrix of dependent variables. PCA helps in finding: ( I ) how samples differ from one another, ( two ) which variables contribute most to this difference and ( three ) if those variables contribute in the same manner or are independent of each other. Harmonizing to Infometrix Inc. ( 1995 ) , chemometrics is a multivariate mathematical and statistical attack to the analysis and reading of analytical informations. Pattern acknowledgment methods have been used in chemometrics to uncover and measure complex relationships in a broad assortment of environmental applications. These methods have contributed to the systematic apprehension of sediment hint metal and organic concentrations originating from natural and anthropogenetic beginnings. Chemometrics is besides utile in measuring biological response to natural or toxic factors, and can place the beginning of the taint. Common utilizations of this technique are to: 1 ) identify factors that are combinations of mensurable variables ; 2 ) illustrate groups or cluster associations among samples ; 3 ) buttocks spacial distribution of environmental factors or disturbances ; and 4 ) predict a belongings of involvement ( such as biological response to chemical disturbance ) . The appraisal of environmental quality is frequently based on tremendous sums of physicochemical informations, which if processed utilizing descriptive, univariate methods is of small value to decision-makers ( Ignatides et al. , 1985 ) . Simple appraisals can be made utilizing descriptive statistics ( mean, standard divergence, etc. ) and some graphical AIDSs. However, the job of foretelling the position of unknown samples with these simple attacks becomes more and more complicated as the figure of parametric quantities is increased. Consequently, multivariate techniques ( Adams, 1998 ; Vandeginste, 1998 ) are needed to accomplish satisfactory consequences. Such techniques have been proven as suited for environmental quality appraisal ( Karydis, 1994 ; Moriki and Karydis, 1994 ; Wunderlin et al. , 2001 ) . They offer greater possibilities to directors in footings of helping the decision-making procedure ( Karydis, 1992 ; Ignatides et al. , 1992 ) . European, national and regional di sposals are demoing a turning involvement in the development of indices for measuring environmental quality. These indices must be based on multivariate processs that have a prognostic capableness ( Consejer & A ; iacute ; a de Medio Ambiente, 1995 ) . Chemometric methods ( besides known as multivariate statistical techniques ) are progressively in usage, which provide several avenues for explorative appraisal of H2O quality informations sets and categorization of H2O qualities. Chemometric methods identify the natural bunch form and group variables on the footing of similarities between the samples. The most common methods of chemometric methods for categorization are viz. , cluster analysis ( CA ) and chief constituent analysis ( PCA ) with factor analysis ( FA ) . The discriminant analysis ( DA ) is used to corroborate the groups found by agencies of the CA and PCA. These multidimensional informations analysis methods are progressively in usage for environmental surveies covering with measurings and monitoring ( Kannel et. Al, 2006 ) . In this paper, merely PCA will be performed, and farther integrated with ANN to maximise the effectivity of this prognostic theoretical account. Cluster analysis and PCA have been widely used as they are indifferent methods which can bespeak associations between samples and/or variables ( Wenning and Erickson, 1994 ) . These associations, based on similar magnitudes or fluctuations in chemical and physical components, may bespeak the presence of seasonal or semisynthetic influences. Hierarchical agglomerate bunch analysis indicates groupings of samples by associating inter-sample similarities and illustrates the overall similarity of variables in the information set ( Massart and Kaufman, 1983 ) . PCA is used to cut down the dimensionality of the informations set by explicating the correlativity among a big set of variables in footings of a little figure of implicit in factors or chief constituents without losing much information ( Jackson, 1991 ; Meglen, 1992 ) , and allows appraisal of associations between variables, since they indicate engagement of single chemicals in several influence factors. Exploratory information ana lysis has been used to measure the H2O quality of rivers, and seasonal, spacial and anthropogenetic influences have been evidenced ( Brown et al. , 1980 ; Bartels et al. , 1985 ; Grimalt et al. , 1990 ; Librando, 1991 ; Andrade et al. , 1992 ; Aruga et al. , 1993 ; Elosegui and Pozo, 1994 ; Pardo et al. , 1994 ; Battegazzore and Renoldi, 1995 ; Voutsa et al. , 1995 ) . In a relevant research, similar attack of statistical methods were being used in analysing a set of informations from Guadalquivir River quality parametric quantity and associated with anthropogenetic beginnings. In the present work, complete survey of the H2O quality of Guadalquivir River, from Seville to the oral cavity were completed. Besides, chemometrics analytical method was used to set up the effects caused by the different human activities performed in the borders of the river. A sum of 26 trying Stationss located along the river measured several physico-chemical variables in the country, and in three different runs from 2001 to 2002. With the consequences a informations matrix were informations matrix built, which was analysed by ( FA/PCA ) and cluster analysis ( CA ) . This analysis allowed the designation of four different zones in the river, with different H2O quality. The first zone ( zone 1A ) comprised from Alcal & A ; aacute ; del R & A ; ague ; & amp ; # 305 ; O to S eville. The 2nd zone ( zone 1B ) was the metropolis of Seville, and as a effect, presented higher concentrations of several variables such as nitrite, ammonium or Mn. The 3rd zone ( zone 2 ) included from Seville to the Guadiamar River. In this country, agribusiness is the chief activity, and so, higher concentrations of suspended solids and phosphate were measured. In footings of H2O quality, this zone was partly similar to district 1A, and partly similar to the 4th zone, get downing in the Guadiamar River and coating in the oral cavity of the Guadalquivir River. The H2O in this last zone ( zone 3 ) is chiefly estuarial H2O. Therefore, its quality is influenced by saltwater input, and besides by the inputs from the Guadiamar River ( coming from a excavation country ) , and presented higher Cu concentration. Three chief constituents ( Personal computers ) were extracted, explicating the 79.1 % of the informations discrepancy. PC1 ( 46.9 % discrepancy ) was chiefly associated with ni trite, ammonium and manganese. PC2 ( 22.5 % discrepancy ) was chiefly associated with suspended solids and phosphates. PC3 ( 9.7 % discrepancy ) was chiefly correlated to nitrate and copper concentration ( Mendiguchia et. Al ; 2004 ) . Similar attack of making a theoretical account based on prognostic methods for analysing informations collected from environmental surveies were conducted at Bagmati River Basin, Nepal. Harmonizing to Kannel et Al, ( 2006 ) , the survey presents the application of selected chemometric techniques: CA, PCA, FA and discriminant analysis, to sort a river H2O quality and rating of the pollution informations. Seventeen Stationss, monitored for 16 physical and chemical parametric quantities in 4 seasons during the period 1999-2003, located at the Bagmati river basin in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal were selected for the intent of this survey. The consequences allowed, finding natural bunchs of monitoring Stationss with similar pollution features and placing chief discriminant variables that are of import for regional H2O quality fluctuation and possible pollution beginnings impacting the river H2O quality. The analysis enabled to group 17 monitoring sites into 3 parts with 5 major know aparting v ariables: EC, DO, CL, NO2N and BOD. Results revealed that some locations were under the high influence of municipal taint and some others under the influence of minerals. This survey demonstrated that chemometric method is effectual for river H2O categorization, and for rapid appraisal of H2O qualities, utilizing the representative sites ; it could function to optimise cost and clip without losing any significance of the result. Another article entitled Apportionment of Sources Affecting Water Supply at Kandla Creek located at Gulf of Katchchh, India, experimented on use of PCA and successfully apportion five major beginnings of pollutant. As stated by Dalal et Al. ( 2009 ) , this survey examines a big dataset collected over assorted seasons of the twelvemonth in Kandla Creek, Gulf of Katchchh, India, to place and measure the parts of the beginnings impacting the H2O quality. Principal PCA was applied to simplify and understand the complex relationships among H2O quality parametric quantities. Five Personal computers were found responsible for the information construction and 76 % of the entire discrepancy of the information set. APCS receptor theoretical account provided allotment of assorted beginnings lending to the H2O quality. Our survey reveal that the port activities contributed 80 % of the ascertained turbidness, 70 % of suspended solids and 68 % of crude oil hydrocarbons ; agricultural overflow cont ributed about 69 % of the ascertained phosphate, 57 % of the nitrate, and 63 % of the nitrite ; and industrial discharges contributed about 92 % of the ascertained ammonium hydroxide. Harmonizing to Camdevyren et al. , 2004, Chlorophyll-a is a well-accepted index for phytoplankton copiousness and population of primary manufacturers in an aquatic environment. The relationships between Chlorophyll-a and 16 chemical, physical and biological H2O quality variables in C & A ; cedil ; aml & amp ; # 305 ; dere reservoir ( Ankara, Turkey ) were studied by utilizing chief constituent tonss ( PCS ) in multiple additive arrested development analysis ( MLR ) to foretell Chlorophyll-a degrees. Principal component analysis was used to simplify the complexness of dealingss between H2O quality variables. Mark values obtained by Personal computer tonss were used as independent variables in the multiple additive arrested development theoretical accounts. Two attacks were used in the present statistical analysis. In the first attack, merely five selected mark values obtained by Personal computer analysis were used for the anticipation of Chlorophyll-a degrees and prognostic success ( R2 ) of the theoretical account found as 56.3 % . In the 2nd attack, where all mark values obtained from the Personal computer analysis were used as independent variables, prognostic power was turned out to be 90.8 % . Both attacks could be used to foretell Chlorophyll-a degrees in reservoirs successfully. Recently, applications of ANNs in the countries of H2O technology, ecological scientific disciplines, and environmental scientific disciplines have been reported since the beginning of the 1990s. In recent old ages, ANNs have been used intensively for anticipation and prediction in a figure of water-related countries, including H2O resource survey ( Liong et al. , 1999 ; 2001 ; Muttil and Chau, 2006 ; El-Shafie et al. , 2008 ) , oceanology ( Makarynskyy, 2004 ) , and environmental scientific discipline ( Grubert, 2003 ) . The ANN, as the name implies, employs the theoretical account construction of a nervous web which is really powerful computational technique for patterning complex non-linear relationships peculiarly in state of affairss where the expressed signifier of the relation between the variables involved is unknown ( Gallant, 1993 ; Smith, 1994 ) . The basic construction of an ANN theoretical account is normally comprised of three typical beds, the input bed, where the info rmations are introduced to the theoretical account and calculation of the leaden amount of the input is performed, the concealed bed or beds, where informations are processed, and the end product bed, where the consequences of ANN are produced. Each bed consists of one or more basic component ( s ) called a nerve cell or a node. A nerve cell is a non-linear algebraic map, parameterized with boundary values ( Dreyfus et al. , 2002 ) . The signal passing through the nerve cell is modified by weights and transportation maps. This procedure is repeated until the end product bed is reached ( Govindaraju, 2000 ) . The figure of nerve cells in the input, hidden and end product beds depends on the job. If the figure of concealed nerve cells is little, the web may non hold sufficient grades of freedom to larn the procedure right. On the other manus, if the figure is excessively high, the preparation will take a longer clip and the web may over-fit the information ( Karunanithi et al. , 1994 ) . The usage of data-driven techniques for patterning the quality of both fresh water ( Chen and Mynett, 2003 ) and saltwater ( Lee et al. , 2000, 2003 ) has met with success in the past decennary. Reckhow ( 1999 ) studied Bayesian chance web theoretical accounts for steering determination doing sing H2O quality in the Neuse River in North Carolina. Chau ( 2006 ) has reviewed the development and current advancement of the integrating of unreal intelligence ( AI ) into H2O quality mold. Arbors ( 2000 ) developed theoretical account to foretell suspended solids conceder local precipitation, watercourse flow rates and turbidness as input. Hatim ( 2007 ) employed an ANN attack utilizing six variables for the initial anticipation of suspended solids in the watercourse at Mamasin dike. Most of them employed about all possible environmental parametric quantities as input variables without sing the optimum pick amongst them. The present survey attempted to pattern Kedah River Basin H2O quality parametric quantities utilizing APCS-ANN mold for the first clip. Limited H2O quality informations and the high cost of H2O quality monitoring frequently pose serious jobs for process-based mold attacks. ANNs provide a peculiarly good option, because they are computationally really fast and necessitate many fewer input parametric quantities and input conditions than deterministic theoretical accounts. ANNs do, nevertheless, require a big pool of representative informations for preparation. Prediction of fresh water beings based on machine larning techniques is going more and more dependable due to the handiness of appropriate datasets and patterning techniques. Artificial nervous webs ( Lek and Guegan, 1999 ) , fuzzed logic ( Barros et al. , 2000 ) , evolutionary algorithms ( Caldarelli et al. , 1998 ) , cellular zombi ( Gronewold and Sonnenschein 1998 ) , etc. proved to be powerful tools to execute ecological modeling, particularly when big datasets are involved. Models have several interesting applications in river direction. They allow for a bet ter reading of the consequences, easing the cause-allocation of the existent river position and increasing the penetration needed to better appraisal systems. Models besides allow for imitating the consequence of possible direction options and therefore back uping decision-making. The development of effectual and efficient monitoring webs based on theoretical accounts is likely another of import advantage. The & A ; lsquo ; River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System ‘ ( RIVPACS ) attack, based on statistical modeling, is presently one of the best available techniques for measuring the biological quality of running Waterss because it offers the ability to utilize environmental variables to foretell species that are expected to happen at a site if it is unstressed. The expected zoology is so compared with the ascertained community of macroinvertebrates in order to measure the river quality ( Wright et al. 2000 ) . However, biological communities are dynamic and the nature of RIVPACS would necessitate to be altered in order to foretell a alteration in faunal composing in response to new environmental conditions at a given site ( De Pauw 2000 ) . ANNs are, nevertheless, still non widely used tools in the Fieldss of H2O quality anticipation and prediction. ANNs are able to come close accurately complicated non-linear input- end product relationships. Like their physics-based numerical theoretical account opposite numbers, ANNs require preparation or standardization. After preparation, each application of the trained ANN is an appraisal of a simple algebraic look with known coefficients and is executed practically outright. The ANN technique is flexible plenty to suit extra restraints that may originate in the application. Furthermore, the ANN theoretical account can uncover concealed relationships in the historical informations, therefore easing the anticipation and prediction of H2O quality. By and large, calculating theoretical accounts can be divided into statistical and physically based attacks. Statistical attacks determine relationships between historical informations sets, whereas physically based attacks model the implicit in procedures straight. Multilayer Perceptron ( MLP ) web ( Rumelhart et al. , 1986 ) are closely related to statistical theoretical accounts and are the type of ANN most suited to calculating applications.When utilizing ANNs for prediction, the mold doctrine employed is similar to the used in traditional statistical attacks. In both instances the unknown theoretical account parametric quantities ( i.e. , the connexion weights in the instance of ANNs ) are adjusted in order to obtain the best lucifer between a historical set of theoretical account inputs and the corresponding end products. These nervous webs are normally used in ecological surveies because they are suggested to be cosmopolitan approximators of any uninterrupted map ( Hornik and White, 1989 ) . It consists of at least three or more beds, which comprise an input bed, an end product bed and a figure of concealed beds. Each nerve cell in one bed is connected to the nerve cells in the following bed, whereas there are no connexions between the units of the same bed ( Kasabov, 1996 ) . Najah et. Al, ( 2009 ) , in an article entitled Prediction of Johor River Water Quality Parameters Using Artificial Neural Networks verified that H2O is a critical for all facets of human and ecosystem endurance and wellness. Therefore, its quality is besides of import. Water quality refers to the composing of a H2O sample. The reading of informations may be hard and drawn-out. Evaluations of H2O quality parametric quantities are necessary to heighten the public presentation of an assessment operation and develop better H2O resources direction and program. Water quality patterning involves the anticipation of H2O pollution utilizing mathematical simulation techniques. In fact, classical process-based mold attack could supply comparatively good anticipation for H2O quality parametric quantities ; nevertheless, those theoretical accounts rely on big sum of informations and needed batch of input informations that frequently unknown. New attack such as Artificial Intelligence techniques has proven their ability and pertinence for imitating and patterning assorted physical phenomena in the H2O technology field. In extra, ANN captures the embedded spatial and unsteady behaviour in the investigated job utilizing its architecture and nonlinearity nature compared with the other classical mold techniques. Johor River Basin located in Johor province, Malaysia which is significantly degrading due to human activities every bit good as urbanisation in and within the country. The survey attempted to foretell H2O quality parametric quantities at Johor River Basin using ANN mold. This survey proposed a anticipation theoretical account for entire dissolved solids, electrical conduction, and turbidness. The consequences show that the proposed ANN anticipation theoretical account has a great potency to imitate and foretell the sum dissolved solids, electrical conduction, and turbidness with absolute average mistake 10 % for different H2O organic structures. ANNs are being used widely to foretell and calculate H2O resources parametric quantities harmonizing to the specified end product mark. There are a few stairss that should be followed in the designing of such theoretical accounts and these include the pick of public presentation standards, the separation and pre-treatment of the available informations set, the finding of suited inputs and web construction, optimisation of the connexion weights ( developing ) and proof of the theoretical account. Guidance for each option of the stairss available for theoretical account interior decorators are discussed and issues with high item of concern are highlighted. A reappraisal covering with the usage of nervous web theoretical accounts for the anticipation and prediction of H2O resources variables is undertaken in footings of the modeling procedure adopted. The huge bulk of these webs are trained utilizing the backpropagation algorithm. Issues in relation to the optimum division of the availa ble informations, informations pre-processing and the pick of appropriate theoretical account inputs are rarely considered. In add-on, the procedure of taking appropriate fillet standards and optimising web geometry and internal web parametric quantities is by and large described ill or carried out inadequately. All of the above factors can ensue in non-optimal theoretical account public presentation and an inability to pull meaningful comparings between different theoretical accounts. Future research attempts should be directed towards the development of guidelines which assist with the development of ANN theoretical accounts and the pick of when ANNs should be used in penchant to alternate attacks, the appraisal of methods for pull outing the cognition that is contained in the connexion weights of trained ANNs and the incorporation of uncertainness into ANN theoretical accounts ( Maier and Dandy, 1999 ) . Harmonizing to Imrie et al. , ( 2000 ) , ANNs provide a quick and flexible agencies of making theoretical accounts for river flow anticipation, and have been shown to execute good in comparing with conventional methods. However, if the theoretical accounts are trained utilizing a dataset that contains a limited scope of values, they may execute ill when meeting events incorporating antecedently unobserved values. This failure to generalize bounds their usage as a tool in applications where the information available for standardization is improbable to cover all possible scenarios. The paper presents a method for improved generalization during preparation by adding a counsel system to the cascade correlativity larning architecture. Two instance surveies from catchments in the UK are prepared so that the proof informations contains values that are greater or less than any included in the standardization informations. The ability of the developed algorithm to generalize on new informati ons is compared with that of the standard mistake backpropagation algorithm. The ability of ANNs trained with different end product activation maps to generalize beyond the standardization informations is assessed. ANN had been widely used as prediction and predicting theoretical accounts throughout the universe. In conformity with Zhang and Stanley ( 1997 ) , in H2O intervention processes, raw-water coloring material is a cardinal parametric quantity for procedure control and monitoring. Therefore, the ability to foretell the raw-water coloring material is desired to help in the optimisation of the intervention procedure. However, due to the high discrepancy and the built-in non-linear relationship of the raw-water coloring material clip series, it is hard to bring forth a dependable theoretical account with conventional mold attacks. In this paper, the ANN mold technique is used to set up a theoretical account for calculating the raw-water coloring in a big river. A general ANN mold strategy is besides recommended for the remainder of the raw-water parametric quantities. The mold procedure typically includes four phases: beginning informations analysis, system priming, and system fine-tuning and exemplary rating. Some optimisation issues involved in the mold stages and the possible applications of ANN in the H2O intervention industry are besides discussed. Result indicate that the ANN mold strategy shows much promise for H2O quality mold and procedure control in H2O intervention. In a similar scientific research, same attack has been performed to construct a theoretical account of river H2O quality. Karoon River in Iran is selected to measure the capableness of ANNs for H2O quality simulation. This river is the longest river in Iran. It is located in Khuzestan state, South West of the state. Several H2O quality variables including CO3, HCO3, SO4, Cl, Na, Ca, Mg, K, EC, TDS and SAR have been simulated. Datas from 1985 to 2006 at supervising Stationss including ; Arabhasan, Valiabad, Molasani, Ahwaz, Farsiat and Darkhoyen have been used for preparation of the selected ANN. Qnet 2000 ANN is selected for patterning intents in the present research. Results show that Qnet 2000 is able to foretell H2O quality variables of the Karoon River really successfully with more than 90 % truth. Research and prognostic webs on imbibing H2O quality and intervention has besides been established. Baxter et. Al, 2001, stated that in the article ; to better imbibing H2O quality whi le cut downing operating costs, many imbibing H2O public-service corporations are puting in advanced procedure control and mechanization engineerings. The usage of AI engineerings, specifically ANNs, is increasing in the imbibing H2O intervention industry as they allow for the development of robust nonlinear theoretical accounts of complex unit processes. This paper highlights the public-service corporation of ANNs in H2O quality modeling every bit good as imbibing H2O intervention procedure modeling and control through the presentation of several instance surveies at two large-scale H2O intervention workss in Edmonton, Alberta as stated by Musavi-Johrami and Golabi ( 2008 ) . In a closely related article, Juahir et Al. ( 2004, 2009 ) , same method that implemented ANN to construct a theoretical account of prognostic web of H2O quality parametric quantity for Langat River Basin. This survey discusses the development and proof of an Artificial Neural Network ( ANN ) theoretical account in gauging H2O quality index ( WQI ) in the Langat River Basin, Malaysia. The ANN theoretical account has been developed and tested utilizing informations from 30 monitoring Stationss. The mold information was divided into two sets. For the first set, ANNs were trained, tested and validated utilizing six independent H2O quality variables as input parametric quantities. Consequently, MLR was applied to extinguish independent variables that exhibit the lowest part in discrepancy. Independent variables that accounted for about 71 % of the discrepancy in WQI are Dissolved Oxygen ( DO ) , Biochemical Oxygen Demand ( BOD ) , Suspended Solids ( SS ) and Ammoniacal-Nitrate ( AN ) . T he Chemical Oxygen Demand ( COD ) and pH contributed merely 8 % and 2 % to the discrepancy, severally. Therefore, in the 2nd information set, merely four independent variables were used to develop, trial and formalize the ANNs. We found that the correlativity coefficient given by six independent variables ( 0.92 ) is merely somewhat better in gauging WQI compared to four independent variables ( 0.91 ) which demonstrates that ANN is capable of gauging WQI with acceptable truth when it is trained by extinguishing COD and pH as independent variables ( Juahir et al. , 2004 ) . Application of ANN has been extended to wastewater quality monitoring intents. Harmonizing to Hore et Al. ( 2008 ) , H2O organic structures have become more and more contaminated owing to dispatch of industrial waste. Therefore, it has been the main concern of scientists, applied scientists and ecologists to diminish the H2O pollution degree around the Earth to keep living viability and ecological balance. In this paper, the seasonal and positional fluctuation of effluent parametric quantities in a natural flowing watercourse has been observed and an ANN theoretical account is proposed to foretell the H2O quality. Tolly ‘s Canal was chosen as the horizon of this instance survey. Wastewater and sediment samples were collected from Tolly ‘s Canal and the River Ganges at different points and different seasons both at high and low tide conditions on a peculiar twenty-four hours. All the of import H2O quality parametric quantities were evaluated. To summarize and describe rive r-water quality, a new term, WQI, has been introduced. The WQI value is a dimensionless figure runing from 0 to 100 ( best quality ) . In this survey, the WQI is predicted by a simulative theoretical account utilizing an ANN. This theoretical account has been developed for the appraisal of the WQI and compared with the conventionally determined values of WQI. An MLP web with a individual hidden bed was used along with back-propagation algorithm. The consequences were found to be rather impressive. Therefore, the ANN proved to be an efficient tool to measure the WQI of any sample. ANN has been established in other types of field, such as chemical science where a group of research worker attempted to foretell peptide liquid chromatography elution times in proteome analyses. Harmonizing to Petritis et al. , ( 2003 ) , the usage of unreal nervous webs ( ANNs ) is described for foretelling the reversed-phase liquid chromatography keeping times of peptides enzymatically digested from proteome-wide proteins. To enable the accurate comparing of the legion liquid chromatography/mass spectometry informations sets, a familial algorithm was developed to normalise the peptide keeping informations into a scope ( from 0 to 1 ) , bettering the peptide elution clip duplicability to 1 % . The web developed in this survey was based on amino acid residue composing and consists of 20 input nodes, 2 hidden nodes, and 1 end product node. A information set of more than 7000 confidently identified peptides from the micro-organism Deinococcus radiodurans was used for the preparation o f the ANN. The ANN was so used to foretell the elution times for another set of 5200 peptides tentatively identified by mass spectra/mass spectometry from a different micro-organism ( Shewanella oneidensis ) . The theoretical account was found to foretell the elution times of peptides with up to 54 amino acid residues ( the longest peptide identified after tryptic digestion of S. oneidensis ) with an mean truth of 3 % . This prognostic capableness was so used to separate with high assurance isobar peptides otherwise identical by accurate mass measurings every bit good as to bring out peptide misidentifications. Therefore, integrating of ANN peptide elution clip anticipation in the proteomic research will increase both the figure of protein designations and their assurance. Integration of two statistical analysis were implented in a relevant survey of Quantitative designation and beginning allotment of anthropogenetic heavy metals in marine deposit of Hong Kong. Based on 10s heavy metals collected twice yearly at 59 sites from 1998 to 2004, enrichment factors ( EFs ) , PCA and APCS-MLR were used in designation and beginning allotment of the anthropogenetic heavy metals in marine deposit. EFs with Fe as a normaliser and local background as mention values was decently tested and suited in Hong Kong, and Zn, Ni, Pb, Cu, Cd, Hg and Cr chiefly originated from anthropogenetic beginnings, while Al, Mn and Fe were derived from stones enduring. Rotated PCA and GIS mapping farther identified two types of anthropogenetic beginnings and their wedged parts: ( 1 ) electronic industrial pollution, riparian overflow and vehicle exhaust impacted the full Victoria Harbour, interior Tolo Harbour, Eastern Buffer, interior Deep Bay and Cheung Chau ; and ( 2 ) discharges fro m fabric mills and pigment, influenced Tsuen Wan Bay and Kwun Tong typhoon shelter and Rambler Channel. In add-on, APCS-MLR was successfully introduced to quantitatively find the beginning parts with uncertainnesss about less than 8 % : the first anthropogenetic beginnings were responsible for 50.0, 45.1, 86.6, 78.9 and 87.5 % of the Zn, Pb, Cu, Cd and Hg, severally, whereas 49.9 % of the Ni and 58.4 % of the Cr came from the 2nd anthropogenetic beginnings ( Zhou et al. , 2007 ) . The APCS-MLR assumed a additive relationship between the entire mass concentration and the parts of each component. The APCS-MLR assumed a additive relationship between the entire mass concentration and the parts of each component ( Thurston and Spengler, 1985 ) . Ln- and Box-Cox transmutations of these variables improved normalcy except for Fe and Al, and Fe, severally. Compared with the ln transmutation, the Box-Cox transmutation significantly reduced the lopsidedness of the informations, which was good to the multivariate analysis. Meanwhile, the negative effects of outliers in the to a great extent skewed natural informations were reduced by the Box-Cox transmutation ( Zhang, 2006 ) . Finally ( 4 ) the Box-Cox transformed datasets were standardized for PCA to minimise the effects of differences in measurement units and discrepancy and to render the information dimensionless ( Johnson and Wichern, 2002 ) . The chief intent of present survey was to utilize a multivariate statistical attack to sort lending beginning harmonizing to their interrelatedness and to foretell H2O quality of Kedah River. For this intent, principle constituent tonss of 30 physical, chemical, and biological H2O quality parametric quantities from this river were used as independent variables in PCA and ANN. It is proved that uniting two statistical methods provide a better reading of consequences and a much accurate prognostic theoretical account.Chapter 3Materials and Methods3.1. Study AreaSungai Kedah is more than 100 kilometers long, arising from the cragged countries surrounding Perlis and Thailand in the North and nor'-east. From here the river flows through hilly terrain and eventually through a broad coastal field. As a major river system in the province, Sungai Kedah flows through the territories of Kubang Pasu, Kota Setar, Padang Terap and Pendang. At present there are 54 H2O quality Stationss, 26 H2O discharge ( flow ) Stationss and one groundwater Stationss in the river basin. The bureau with the most extended H2O monitoring in this basin is MADA which operates more than 50 % of the entire Stationss. In this survey, I focused on Sungai Kedah, fluxing from the very bosom of the capital metropolis of Kedah. Sungai Kedah is more than 100 kilometers long, arising from the cragged countries surrounding Perlis and Thailand in the North and nor'-east. From here the river flows through hilly terrain and eventually through a broad coastal field. As a major river system in the province, Sungai Kedah flows through the territories of Kubang Pasu, Kota Setar, Padang Terap and Pendang. The natural basin is about 60 kilometers broad and 80 kilometers long and covers an country of 2,920 km2. The basin ranges from 400 metres high to the coastal fields. The coastal field is the Centre of rice cultivation. The province capital was founded over 250 old ages ago at the meeting of Sungai Anak Bukit and Sungai Kedah, which was the Centre for the rice trade. The coastal field is dominated by the Muda Irrigation Scheme covering an country of 966 km2. Runing across four territories and run outing a 3rd of the State of Kedah, Sungai Kedah plays a important function in the lives of the people. The dominant signifier of land usage in the basin is agribusiness ( 62 % ) . This is followed by woods cover ( 28 % ) , urban countries ( 6.6 % ) and H2O organic structures ( 3 % ) . Muda Irrigation Scheme, besides known as the Rice Bowl of Malaysia, is managed by MADA. 30 % of it lies within the Sungai Kedah Basin. Within Sungai Kedah Basin, there are besides irrigation strategies outside of the MADA country managed by DID. A entire figure of 17 such strategies are found in the 4 territories within the basin. These countries added up to about 3,500 strategies come from assorted beginnings, including Sungai Kedah feeders and MADA canals ( DID, 2007 ) . The Pedu, Ahning and Muda dikes in the upper catchment of Sungai Padang Terap Basin supply the State of Kedah and some parts of the State of Perlis with H2O for irrigation, every bit good as domestic and industrial utilizations throughout the twelvemonth. 26 % of Sungai Kedah Basin ( about 62,000 hectares ) comprises of lasting forest modesty in Bukit Perangin, Chebor Besar, Koh Moi, Padang Terap, Pedu and Sungai Badak. These lasting wood militias function as H2O catchment countries. During the rainy season, the catchment countries replenish the rivers and absorb big sum of rain H2O, thereby minimising hazard of deluging. During the dry season, the catchment countries replenish the rivers and provide uninterrupted supply of H2O. These woods are home ground of a diversified aggregation of works and carnal species. This includes the river terrapins which are threatened due to habitat devastation and inordinate egg poaching. The river terrapins are protected under the Kedah Terrapin Enactment 1972. The river is besides the home ground for fish species such as toman, rohu, belida, jelawat, patin and lampam.3.2 DatasDesignations of beginning allotment in river H2O quality utilizing both APCS and ANN in this survey should lend a better consequences and accounts to which parametric quantities takes the most important impairment. These H2O quality parametric quantities were measured within continuance of 1997-2006 at 6 Stationss. 3 other Stationss, viz. 2KD07, 2KD08 and 2KD09 were built and became operational beginning in twelvemonth 2005, which explains a deficiency of informations compared to other Stationss along Kedah River. The parametric quantities measured in all the 9 Stationss are Dissolved Oxygen ( DO ) , Biological Oxygen Demand ( BOD ) , Chemical Oxygen Demand ( COD ) , pH, Ammoniacal Nitrogen ( NH3-NL ) , temperature, conduction, salt, turbidness, SS, DS, TS, nitrate, Cl, PO4, As, Hg, Cd, Cr, Pb, Zn, Ca, Fe, Na, Mg, , OG, MBAS, E. coli and Coliform. These informations were non absolutely complete, with a figure of losing informations in each parametric quantity. To get the better of this state of affairs, estimate utilizing norm of close neighbouring informations were performed in order for the analysing procedure to be smoother, particularly when utilizing XLSTAT to execute PCA. Another defect that can be found in the whole information set is some are shuting or under the restriction of measuring. This sort of defect can be identified with mathematical figure ( & A ; lt ; ) in forepart of the parametric quantities value. What can be done here is to merely added in by two to do it legalize for X LSTAT analysing procedure. In order to better the information I have obtained and guarantee the effectivity of multivariate analysis, the following were performed to my informations: ( 1 ) losing informations were estimated utilizing mean values and ( 2 ) values below the bound were replaced by bounds of sensing.3.2.1 Data PartitionThe information in nervous webs are categorized into two sets: preparation or larning sets. The acquisition set is used to find the adjusted weights and prejudices of a web. The trial set is used for standardization, which prevents overtraining webs. The general attack for choosing a good preparation set from available informations series involves including all of the utmost events ( i.e. all possible minimal and maximal values in the preparation set ) . a manner that both preparation and trial informations sets are statistically comparable. The trial set should be about 10-40 % of the size of the preparation set of informations. The H2O quality informations were divided into two se ts. The first set contained 70 % of the records and was used as a preparation set ; the 2nd trial contained 30 % of the records and was used as trial set.3.3 Statistical methodsPrinciple constituent analysis and unreal nervous web were performed on these 30 parametric quantities to rank their comparative significance and to depict their interrelatedness forms every bit good as to make a theoretical account base on existent river category and predicted river category. XLSTAT package is used to analyse the information with Principal Component Analysis and the Artificial Neural Networks were constructed utilizing Forecaster XL. The first measure taken is to execute PCA on all 30 H2O quality parametric quantities in order to rexclude undistinguished informations. After that, eigenanalysis were performed to pull out informations with characteristic root of a square matrix higher than 1 and a new group of variables was created as a resemblance of the whole information set. Varimax rotary motion was besides performed to obtain varimax factors of the rule constituents. In this sudy, merely varimax factors with values more than 0.70 ( ( positive or negative ) will be discussed. Based on the tonss from PCA consequences, a web of prognostic theoretical account was established. The chief ground of these method was to diagrammatically show the per centum of each rule constituents or variables part and/or importance towards the overall quality of the river. Mark value ( skj ) for jth observation in kth Personal computer was obtained from the weight of variables in Personal computers and standardized variables by utilizing the undermentioned equation ; Skj = t1k z1j + t2k z2j + †¦ + tpk zpj Where J = 1, 2, . . . , n is the figure of observation ; k = 1, 2, . . . , Q, the figure of selected Personal computer figure ; p the figure of independent variables ; Skj the standardized mark value of jth observation in kth Personal computers ; zpj the standardised value of pth variable of jth observation, calculated from omega = yp – & amp ; # 1263 ; /sx, where yp is the original value of pth variable ; and tpk the standardised weight of the pth variable in kth Personal computers. One attack was employed in utilizing Personal computer tonss that is, utilizes merely 9 Personal computers with Eigen values greater 1 out of 29 rules constituents. Eigenvalues can be thought of as quantitative appraisal of how much a constituent represents the information. The higher the characteristic root of a square matrixs of a constituent, the more representative it is of the informations. To find the public presentation of each of the selected web theoretical account, three different standards were used: the root mean square mistake ( RMSE ) , the prejudice, and the coefficient of finding or symbolized by R & A ; sup2 ; ( Chenard and Caissie, 2008 ) . The RMSE represents the mistake associated with the theoretical account and can be computed as: RMSE = ( & A ; amount ; ( ypi – oi ) & A ; sup2 ; / N ) ^ & A ; frac12 ; where ypi and oi represent the theoretical account computed and measured values of the variable, and N represents the figure of observations. The RMSE, a step of the goodness-of-fit, best describes an mean step of the mistake in foretelling the dependant variable. However, it does non supply any information on stage differences. The prejudice represents the mean of all the single mistakes and indicates whether the theoretical account overestimates or underestimates the dependant variable. It is calculated as: Bias = 1/N & A ; amount ; ( ypi – oi ) The coefficient of finding ( R2 ) represents the per centum of variableness that can be explained by the theoretical account and is calculated as: R & A ; sup2 ; = ( ( N & A ; sum ; oi ypi – ( & A ; sum ; oi ) ( & A ; sum ; ypi ) ) / [ N & A ; sum ; o & A ; sup2 ; one – ( & A ; sum ; oi ) & A ; sup2 ; ] & A ; times ; [ N & A ; sum ; y & A ; sup2 ; pi- ( & A ; sum ; ypi ) & A ; sup2 ; ] ) & A ; sup2 ; Adequacy of the created modelswas evaluated through reciting the comparative extent of engagement of assorted input variables in the theoretical account public presentation. Fitness of the created ANN theoretical accounts was checked through analysis of the remainders. In a dependent-independent variable mold attack, it is desirable to measure the comparative importance and part of each of the independent variables in a theoretical account and in subsequent calculation anticipation of the dependant variable. Here, we used partitioning attack to show the importance of independent variables for the end product bed instead than a individual end product node, working as to partition thesumof effects onthe end product bed ( Garson, 1998 ) . Here, the general web consists of 11 environmental variables. The importance of each variable can be expressed as ( Lee et al. , 2003 ) : I = & amp ; amount ; ( New Hampshire ) ( j=1 ) ABS ( wji ) / & A ; amount ; ( Nevada ) ( k=1 ) [ & A ; amount ; ( New Hampshire ) ( j=1 ) ABS ( wji ) ] K where New Hampshire is the figure of concealed nodes, Nevada is the figure of input variables, wji is the connectionweight from the ith input node to jth concealed node, and ABS demotes the absolute value of the map.Chapter 4Consequences and Discussion4.1 Chief Component TonssIn this survey, a set of 410 samples reasoning 30 H2O quality parametric quantities runing from the twelvemonth 1997 until 2006 was obtained. The ground to cover such big figure of informations is to cover all possible conditions and to perfectize any defect that may happen during the building of this theoretical account. The parametric quantities involved and examined in chemometrics analysis, or Personal computers are ; DO, BOD, COD, SS, pH, NH3-NL, temperature, conduction, turbidness, salt, dissolved solids, entire solids, NO3, Cl, Ca, PO4, As, Hg, Cd, Cr, Pb, Zn, Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Na, Oil and Grease, MBAS, E-Coli and Coliform. The first measure in measuring this confounding information set i

Consumer Buying Behavior Essay

The most challenging questions for marketers are why buyers do what they do (or don’t do). Such knowledge is critical for marketers, since having a strong understanding of buyer’s behavior will shed light on what is important for the consumer and also suggest the important influences on consumer decision-making. Factors affecting consumers’ buying decisions are extremely complex. It is deeply rooted in psychology with dashes of sociology thrown in just to make things more interesting. It explains the influences on the consumer from groups such as family, friends and society in general. Consumers’ buying behavior result from deeply held values and attitudes, their perception of the world, their place in it, from common sense, from impulse or just plain take. 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IT Project management - Essay Example Nevertheless, additional software projects normally lacks of calendar time. Increasing work force to a late software project results to sequential constraints. Moreover, it is costly which has immediate negative impact that cannot be recompensed within the prevailing weeks. Additional software projects also lacks of calendar time. Strategy of making up schedule slippage is increasing the productivity of the individuals working on tasks. Nevertheless, the strategy has the disadvantage of not solving the delays due lack of the information, support and resources. Increasing the productivity of the data modeling teams demands extensive training and replacement of the underlying outsourced staff, which would demand escalated expenditures of time and money (Taylor, pp. 123-189). Thus, managers and corresponding planners ought to carry out re-planning in order to adjust the schedule, staffing and budgetary plans to be utilized in process of guiding the entire process of completion duration. Another approach is adding more workers to the underlying project tasks. This approach has a risk since the managers and the corresponding planners argue that adding more workers can never solve the problem due to lack of the enough information, support and resources. Moreover, computation of the increase in productivity due to the increase in the number of workers especially for the underlying data modeling tasks to catch up is normally unrealistic. This schedule slippage offer re-planning opportunities that entail utilizing slack time of the non-critical path tasks and corresponding overlapping more of the tasks. MOOS-Maintenance and Ongoing Operations Support affect IT project estimates in numerous ways. It will offer standard recurrent procedure to monitor on the collaboration amidst the IT regarding the project demands. They will be allotted by the SDLC phase by identification of the preliminary assessment of the underlying work request,

Ethics Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Ethics - Research Paper Example These topics are applied to the case of Mrs. Z, who is diagnosed with breast cancer but refuses to take additional treatment and disclose her medical condition to her family. This paper analyzes the ethical dilemma inherent in the case and how can the healthcare team resolve this through the application of ethical theories and principles in nursing. B. Justify the Importance of Ethical Theory to Nursing The key role of theories is to provide individuals with a worldview or perspective which may guide them in identifying, describing, explaining, or predicting phenomenon or formulating measures which will facilitate the phenomenon. The competencies that nurses use in the process of ethical decision making are not enough to make appropriate and coherent ethical decision (Lachman, 2012). There are several theories that are drawn upon to help nurses resolve ethical dilemmas. Ethical theories take into account the purpose or motive of the nurse, the techniques exercised by the nurse to car ry out the act, and the outcomes of the act. There are four ethical theories that are widely used in nursing practice, namely utilitarianism, deontology, virtue, and egoist (Fairchild, 2010). Utilitarianism is usually viewed as asserting that the decision-making process is based on the ‘greater good’. Deontology is rooted in the notion of duty. Nurses have a binding obligation to pursue acts that will benefit their patients. Virtue theory states that the motive of the individual making the ethical decision is what establishes whether or not the decision was ethical or good. If the purpose was good, then even though the result was bad, the decision would still be moral. And egoist theory promotes the concept of rational self-interest (Fairchild, 2010; Paganini & Egry, 2011). B.1. Provide one example that shows the importance of ethical theory as it applies to nursing practice Mrs. Z refuses to undergo life-preserving treatment and disclosure of her medical diagnosis to h er family after being diagnosed with breast cancer. Dr. F and the nurse confront a typical ethical dilemma: they desire to prevent the perceived ‘harm’ of Mrs. Z’s condition. Nevertheless, they also desire to fulfill the ‘good’ of valuing the informed decision of the patient and prevent the ‘harm’ of violating her autonomy. In this case the process of ethical decision making will require analysis of similarly firm but contradictory ideas—respect for patient autonomy vs. the preservation of life. In this case the healthcare team may look at the deontological side of the situation to determine if their actions are in accordance to the rules and guidelines of their profession. On the other hand, virtue ethics will help determine if their actions are according to moral or good intention. C. Relate the Principle of Confidentiality to the Concept of Reasonable Limits Confidentiality is the obligation to protect and respect private infor mation. The rule of confidentiality states that nurses should give respect to their patients’ privacy needs and use private details about them only to enhance their care (Longhi-Deshefy et al., 2004). Healthcare professionals must observe confidentiality to

GDP Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

GDP - Essay Example increases real GDP demanded, and an increase in net taxes decreases real GDP demanded, other things remain constant. 4) Give short definitions of both the IS and LM curves and briefly explain how this model can help economists understand the interaction between the goods and money markets. Show how the IS and LM curves can be derived and explain how equilibrium is reached. The IS curve describes the combination of interest rates and output that clear the goods and services market in the short run. The goods and services market is said to clear when spending by consumers, firms, the government (and foreigners if an open economy) on goods and services equals the production of goods and services. The basic equation for the IS curve in a closed economy is closely related to the national income accounting identity Y = C+I+G, where Y is GDP The LM curve summarizes all the combinations of income and interest rates that equate money demand and money supply. The LM curve in conjunction with the IS curve will help pin down the interest rate in the economy. It is well known that establishing the elasticity of the IS and LM curves provides basic information about the predicted outcome of fiscal and monetary policies in a given model, with a combination of inelastic LM and elastic IS implying fiscal crowding out and potent monetary policy, whereas elastic LM and inelastic IS lead to potent fiscal and weak monetary effects. Estimation of these locuses 5) Distinguish between monetary base and broad money. Explain what role commercial banks have in the creation of broad money. What implications does this have for monetary control The monetary base consists of the liabilities of central bank of a country which...Show how the IS and LM curves can be derived and explain how equilibrium is reached. 6) Distinguish between different kinds of unemployment. What kind of unemployment can be reduced by supply side policies and what specifically could those policies be Use a diagram to explain these policies 1) Using the Keynesian model of injections and withdrawals in the goods market, explain what happens if people decides to save more at any level of income. Make sure you express the process of adjustment and assess what implications the results may have for policy.

The Heartbeat of Culture Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

The Heartbeat of Culture - Essay Example Levine based his research on three factors, which are the accuracy of the country’s clock, the speed at which pedestrians walk, and the average time that postal clerk sell stamps. Although some critics believe that these factors are minor to determine the pace of life, the fact of the matter is that these factors are accurate in defining culture. It is crucial to note that, punctuality is restricted to some societies. It is undeniable fact that different cultures have different impression about time. In essence, some countries are more considerate about time. For instance, when one has an appointment, one is expected to be on time or earlier in America. According to the author, Americans are unlike Brazilians who rarely keep time. It has also been observed that, American students keep time and finish their projects on time. According to this article, Americans are known for their punctuality. They do their best to be on time and in most cases many would attend meetings earlier that the time scheduled. Form most Americans, punctuality is a strong attribute since it defines the efficiency of a person. With the fast-paced lifestyle of Americans, most people have established the need to keep time. The author captivates readers’ attention when he outlines how most American students would leave the classroom without permission.

Microbial Water Quality and Influences of Fecal Accumulation from a Essay

Microbial Water Quality and Influences of Fecal Accumulation from a Dog Exercise Area - Essay Example The results obtained from the samples were keenly analyzed and evaluated to give the relevant result. Published documents were also reviewed to compare the result found with the current experiment results (Garfield and Walker, 2008). The results found were obtained through different tools and techniques, these included sampling of the water and also an analysis of fecal accumulation and burden at different spots along the rivers and lakes. With the fecal accumulation strategy, different masses of dry feces were taken and weighed and then compared with the quantity of feces available per plot. The water sampling technique entailed sampling of the water at different points of the river and then filtering the water on specific filters to give the E.coli bacteria levels before an analysis is done on the amount of waste found in the water (Garfield and Walker, 2008). More feces were deposited at the upstream than downstream. Simple linear regression was used for a comparison and analysis of data obtained from the water sampling technique. This was to determine the relationship between the sample of water collected and the fecal amount found. For the data obtained on the fecal E.coli burden, a correlation analysis was done to give the best result on the relationship between the two (Garfield and Walker, 2008). The result from water sampling showed a variety in correlation between the amount of fecal discharge in the upstream and downstream but did not show any correlation with the seasons (Garfield and Walker, 2008). The regression analysis however showed there was a significate rate of fecal discharge during the summer than in all other existing seasons. Over time it was realized that the amount of feces discharge increased at a constant rate within and around the water sources. The feces of canine animals such as dogs were also found to contain a

Decision-Making Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Decision-Making - Essay Example The soft information is defined as the information that is unverifiable and private. The private information is the one that is not available to the public and can only be sourced from the primary source of the information. Among the soft information real-time flow, real-time-accounting personal assets and debts, career history or family matters are only verifiable by the third party by quantifiable information or objective or by use of legal documents. Valid information can be accessed by the financial institution in a credible way but the unverifiable information can be transmitted in a credible way, and it requires some effort from the firms and the shareholder. The private information can hardly be transferred even within the firm. In the firm's lending decision to another small firm, the branch officials typically collect the required information for the decision to be made. After the collection of the relevant information, the decision is made by the decision-making authority. In cases like this, the firm's staff are not allowed to collect the information required for the decision-making. Thus, the hierarchical, allocated decision authorities are mandated to make the decision of the firm. The statistical evidence showed that the asset size of a financial institution is positively correlated with the soft information usage. The result is more contradicting as compared to the intuition that financial firms are less likely to apply to soft information and cast doubts on the empirical strategy.

Recruitement Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2500 words

Recruitement - Research Paper Example This would then be advertised as appropriate. The Pepsi website often advertises jobs to support recruitment of staff members. Pepsi also recruits from Twitter and LinkedIn. These social media enables them to send job vacancies to people who qualify for them. At other times, they send the vacancy advert to local newspapers. For top level jobs or jobs at regional or international levels, they advertise in international media like global news channels like Al Jazeera and global newspapers like TIME magazine. Candidates apply to Pepsi when they feel they are qualified. Once applications are received for the recruitment exercise, the appropriate HR staff and relevant managers assess the claims and offer jobs. Pepsi is in competition with major companies like Coca Cola. As such, they will need to ensure that they recruit only the best people who can keep Pepsi at the top. This is because if they get the best in the industry, they are likely to overtake their competitors. Pepsi appears to be a friendly organization because they offer people the chance to work with them. Their website shows a lot of details about their recruitment. This presents them as a positive organization to the world. Organizational goals in Pepsi is always matched with the mission and vision declared by the management of the company. As such, recruitment enables the management of Pepsi to ensure that only the best people who can attain a given vision at every point in time are employed. This enables them to use their human resource in the most effective and most strategic way possible. Since Pepsi is a big organization, putting together a recruitment campaign is expensive. First of all, they will have to maintain a big human resource management team that would continue to study the organization and plan recruitment activities. Secondly, the costs of advertising and maintaining the Pepsi website is bloated because of recruitment. Additionally,

Mary Shellys Frankenstein Essay Example for Free

Mary Shellys Frankenstein Essay The director has made it clear to the audience that the film will be about life and death by having a statue of Jesus almost toppling over, next to a large figure of the grim reaper representing death. When Frankenstein is digging the grave up, he throws dirt over the statue, perhaps representing how he has no respect for death. The props and costumes are used reflect the setting and atmosphere. Dr. Frankensteins clothes differ from the rest of the cast, wearing a cravat and white shirt; the director may have done this to represent his higher status in society, compared to the mourners or Frankensteins hunchback assistant. In Branaghs film the costumes are all very similar, they play no major part in the first four minutes studied. However they help to keep in with the mono colour of the ice and pale faces. These bland colours create a stark and dramatic contrast to the bright red blood which comes on screen when the monsters hand dramatically appears. The make up worn by the characters in Whales film is heavy, pronounced and very theatrical; designed so that people in the theatre could see the faces from far away, but on camera it looks exaggerated and over the top. Branagh has used make-up subtly and realistically, creating red cheeks to show cold conditions alongside messy hair and unshaven faces to represent the length of time since the characters have been near civilization. Whales theatrical past suggests why all the facial expressions and movements are prominent and exaggerated. Although Branagh also has a distinguished history in theatre, Whale was working in the beginnings of Hollywood when cinema was portrayed much like theatre on screen. In the first close ups of Fritz and Frankenstein they are both wide-eyed which connotes stereotypical mad scientists and both characters creep around the graveyard with dramatic stage whispers. The facial expressions and emotions in Branaghs Frankenstein are far less obvious and it is due to this fact that there is a lot more change in emotion over a short space of time. During a few minutes, the expressions of one character changed from fear, to pride, to concentration and then anger. This emotion change is slightly exaggerated to let the audience engage and empathize with the characters. One way that Branagh lets the audience use their imagination is by his use of positioning within the frame. Most shots are very closely cropped to the faces so that we can see expressions clearly. However, when the monster was killing the dogs, Branagh cleverly clipped the shots so that the suspense could be continued and prolonged. This method of positioning is a big contrast to Whales. Most of the shots in his version are mid or long and there are very few point-of-view or close ups. This is partly due to the lack of technology and experience. Branagh may have used more adventurous and interesting angles but he has had 60 years of Hollywood to look back on; Whale was at a huge disadvantage in this respect and this should of course be considered when deciding who is the better director. Whale did try and be adventurous in some respects: he used an effective high angle shot towards the end of the four minutes, it showed Fritz and Frankenstein walking towards the gallows, which heightened the feeling of a change of setting, and it clearly showed the rocky landscape, which also increased the sense of fear. Whale has placed the characters so that they were very central within the frame. The camera sticks to the action and follows it, much like if one were watching a play, a method most probably influenced by Whales history in theatrical directing. Branaghs editing is a great deal faster than Whales so this gives him more scope to change the camera angles. However, the reason for this difference in speed could be down to the settings of the expositions, not effectiveness of directing. Branaghs film begins in a chaotic storm with lots of action, whereas Whale tries to connote sense of fear and slow eeriness. Branagh tries to create an emotional impact and takes it for granted that the audience will understand and follow the action, whereas Whales style is more conventional and his editing is used for practical purposes and to see the setting and to follow the action. As an audience in the 20 and 21st century, we are so used to the conventional shock tactics, that we fail to take into account their effect in older films, such as Whales Frankenstein. Although aspects of Whales production may seem dated to todays audience, theres an atmosphere present that would be hard to re-create, even with technological advances. Kenneth Branaghs Frankenstein, for all its use of modern technology, lacks the atmospheric build up that Whales seems to have. Whales film is more like the nineteenth century novel; his style suits the slow unveiling of narrative, as in the book, whereas Branagh conveys a sense of action and fast moving suspense to satisfy the ever-demanding audience. The fast moving action means that Branagh has not had a chance to build up a sense of fear; everything is over dramatized and with a very fast pace. Although Branagh has indeed created an atmospheric build up, using all the modern technology available, James Whales Frankenstein has stood the test of time and, although it was directed 63 years before Branaghs, has used the most effective techniques available to build up an atmosphere of tension and fear. If an audience of today find Whales directing more or equally effective than Branaghs then imagine how well it would have worked on audiences unaccustomed to this level of horror within a film. Show preview only The above preview is unformatted text This student written piece of work is one of many that can be found in our GCSE Mary Shelley section.

Examining Murder And Unlawful Killing On People Criminology Essay

Examining Murder And Unlawful Killing On People Criminology Essay Investigative psychology is an approach the police take in order to inspect criminal behavior. This form of psychology is mainly used to answer important questions that arise during the process of criminal investigations. When checking a crime scene there are three main questions running through the minds of the detectives: what are the behavioral features of the perpetrator, what are the characteristics of the offender, and is it possible that there are other crimes committed by the same offender. According to Jillian Robbins (Stone, 2009l) the behavior of the criminal at the time of the incident is one of the best forms of evidence to a case. She reports that there are three important behavioral traits that all detectives look out for while inspecting a crime scene: the modus operandi, the signature and the typology of the offender. The modus operandi or MO refers to the way the offender behaves or acts while trying to carry out his crime successfully. Offenders usually have a strong desire to perform the perfect crime, or to commit a crime without getting caught. As the offender gains experience with each crime he commits, the MO will also change until the effective method is found. This means that an offenders MO will changes through a series of learned behaviors. Richard Quinney points out that police investigators are trained to recognize the MO of the offender but not to solely use the MO to link crimes together. (Clinard, Quinney, 1973) He admits that it is difficult not to jump to conclusions when dealing with identical MOs, especially when the crimes are close in location, but states that including any evidence without unreasonable doubt is a serious police error. A signature, commonly referred to as personation, describes any unusual details at the scene of the crime other than the ones actually needed to commit the crime. Most offenders will leave identical marks at the scenes of each crime they commit. The mark could range from anything like writing on the walls at the scene of the crime to placing the victims body in unusual positions. The signature has a higher level of importance to the investigator because it is directly related to the cognitive process that is unique to each offender. (Stone, 2009) The typology is the last major behavioral pattern used to identify the offender. There are three main categories of typologies: undoing, staging and trophy. Undoing is when the offender psychologically tries to undo the crime scene. This behavioral pattern is most commonly found in offenders who get distraught after the death of their victim. There are many different ways that the offenders will try to deal with the psychological impact or realization of their crime. Some offenders try to return the victim back to a naturally looking state such as laying them down in bed with a pillow under their head or dressing them in clean clothes. Other offenders may try to dehumanize the victim by either beating the victims face in, covering the face with material or rolling the victim facedown. In these examples the offender is trying to veil the identity of the victim in order to make the crime less personal. (Akers, 1994) The second category of typology is staging. Staging is intentionally a ltering the crime scene in hopes to distract the investigators. Michael Stone (Stone, 2009) points out that staging is committed by someone other than the offender to either mislead the investigators away from the suspect, or to protect the victims family. The most commonly reported reason for staging is to cover up autoeroticism or the self-arousal and self-gratification of a sexual desire without a partner. (Ellis, 1906) The four types of autoeroticism are autoerotic hanging, aqua eroticism, chemical eroticism and self-suffocation. All forms result in a lack of oxygen that increases sexual stimulation. Two-thirds of the families of these victims stage the crime scene and reposition the body for the victim to look more presentable to authorities. (Ellis, 1906) The last typology is trophy. Offenders who are typed with a trophy typology are those who take a meaningful souvenir from the victim to either remember or to control the crime scene. The trophy could be anything from a pictur e of the victim to a body part. It is important to note that a trophy typology could be part of the offenders signature. The next evidence the investigators look at while inspecting the crime is the organization of the scene. The way the crime scene looks after a crime tells a lot about the offender. There are three types of crime scenes: organized, disorganized and mixed. An organized crime scene shows that the offender maintained control during the murder. Profilers conclude that an offender of an organized crime scene most likely selected his victim on a specific basis. An example would be a serial killer who selected only victims with blonde hair and blue eyes. Offenders of organized murder crime scenes have been profiled and interestingly have been classified with specific character traits. These offenders usually have above average to genius IQ levels, are socially adequate, sexually competent, had inconsistent childhood discipline, maintained control during the crime, used alcohol during the crime, live with a partner and have a car that runs in good condition. These offenders plan their crimes methodically. They abduct their victims and kill them in one locations and dispose of the body elsewhere, they are likely to lure their victims with ploys of sympathy, they commonly target prostitutes, they demand submission from their victim, they have a high knowledge of forensics and are able to cover their track and they take pride in their actions and follow their case in the media. When questioned, friends and family often describe the offender of organized crime scene as kind and unlikely to hurt anyone. (Bordua, 1962) Disorganized crime scenes prove that the offender most likely committed the crime without premeditation. This shows that the crime was committed under impulse or out of extreme rage. This offender likely murders whenever the opportunity arises having no specific criteria in picking a victim. This offender may have a history of mental problems and is in almost all cases socially inadequate. Often the body is left at the place of death and there are no signs of the offender trying to cover their tracks. Profilers report that disorganized crime scene offenders have below average IQ levels, do not hold down jobs, are sexually incompetent, are anxious during the crime, live alone, work or live near the crime scene, have a minimal interest in following the crime in the news, leave a random/sloppy crime scene, commit sexual acts after the death of the victim, leave the body in view of others to see and often leave the weapon behind. A mixed crime scene is one in which there are evidence of an organized is and a disorganized crime scene. The offender usually starts off with an organized intention but when something unplanned interrupts, strays away from his plans and becomes disorganized. Not all crime scenes have the same level of organization to them, it varies for every scene. After the investigators collect all information based on the characteristics of the crime, they then use the information in a process of profiling. There are two approaches to profiling, the nomothetic approach where statistics from a large number of previous offenders are taken and profilers look for a pattern, or the idiographic approach where the profiler takes once case study and intensely analyzes it. One type of profiling is criminal profiling. Criminal profiling analyzes the personality traits, habits, features and behavioral patterns found at the crime scene in order to develop a description of the offender. This practice is also known as crime scene analysis. When using a nomothetic approach to criminal profiling the investigator is able to see more details because of the normal distribution, but less about the offender themselves. When using the idiographic approach to criminal profiling the investigator comes up with detailed information on the offender. It is almost as if the investigator knows the offender inside and out. A flaw to this method is that the investigator is unable to compare the offender to other offenders which leads to the possibility of forcing a profile on an offender it does not belong to. This phenomena is knows as confirmation bias or fitting the pieces that work and ignoring the ones that do not work. Another form of profiling is geographic profiling. Geographic profiling is used to determine either the area of residence of the offender or to predict the area of the next possible crime. This form of profiling is basically done to find which geographic location the offender feels most comfortable in and prefers to take victims in. (Beauregard, Proulx, Rossmo, 2005) Profiling is extremely usefully to investigators especially in multiple murder crimes. With the use of this system, authorities are able to narrow down people and locations in catch the offenders before they strike again. Dr. Grover Godwin believes that obtaining th e dumpsite plus the abduction site drastically improves the ability to pin point the offenders place of residence. The downfall to geographical profiling is that profilers need at least five crimes to find a pattern. This means that the offender continues to take lives before this process can take effect. Many profilers argue that when the offender exhibits some form of mental illness at the scene of the crime such as sadistic torture, evisceration, postmortem slashing and cutting, and other mutilations, the profiling of serious offenders is more successful. This is a result based from the theory that when a person is mentally disturbed they demonstrate the greatest consistency in behavior from situation to situation. Another strategy the investigators use to determine the offender is the psychological autopsy. This is a reconstructive psychological evaluation that differs from profiling. Here the profiling is done on a dead person, and the identity of the person is already known. There are two types of psychological autopsies. The first type is suicide psychology autopsy and it is used to understand and identify factors that contribute to the suicide. The second type is the equivocal death psychological autopsy and it is used to determine the reason of the death. In both the suicide psychological autopsy and the equivocal death psychological autopsy, a forensic psychologist is hired. The forensic psychologist looks at the lifestyles, behavioral history, personality traits, and the amount of psychological pain the victim was in. They conduct interviews with family, friends, and people who knew the victim. The forensic psychologist also looks through the victims personal documents in order to get a better understanding of the cause of death. Once the investigators know the reasoning behind the murder they are able to start narrowing down suspects. Now that we have a base understanding of the strategies investigators use to expose offenders, it is time to compare and define each different category of multiple murder offenders. First off, multiple murders are the killing of many people either in the same occurrence or over a period of time. Although these events are rare, they are highly publicized and remain in the memories of many people. There are three classifications of multiple murderers: serial murderers, mass murderers and spree murderers. A serial murderer is when one person kills a minimum of three people over time. The time period contains a cooling off period in which the offender will not kill the next victim for weeks, months or sometimes even years. This cooling off period is the main difference between serial murderers and other multiple murderers. The majority of serial murderers are single white males who are highly intelligent with above average IQ levels. They commonly have trouble holding down jobs and come from unstable homes where typically the father abandoned the family and the mother raised the children. They are often abused physically, mentally or emotionally and the abuse is usually by an older male figure that the offenders mother brought in to replace to offenders father. As children, serial murderers commonly display what has come to be known as the triad: being fascinated with fire setting, bedwetting after the age of 12, and displaying sadistic activities or the torture of small animals. They show characteristics of anti-social personality disorder at a young age and they tend to lack empathy and guilt when disciplined and are egocentric and impulsive. The crime scene left by a serial murderers may be organized or disorganized. Serial murders are known to kill for different motives. Hagan categorizes the motives of the offenders into three groups: visionary, mission oriented and hedonistic. (Hagan, 2010) A visionary motive is when the offender suffers from a psychotic break and believes that another person or even god or the devil instructs them to kill. A mission oriented motive is when the offender justifies his act by saying they are ridding the world of a specific type of person, an example being homosexuals or prostitutes. These offenders are not psychotic they are only out to change the nature of society. An offender with a hedonistic motive seeks thrill and pleasure from killing. They see people as expendable. There are three different types of hedonistic motives: lust, thrill, comfort and power/control. A hedonistic lust motive shows sex as the primary motif. Fantasy plays a large role in these killings. It doesnt matter to the offender if the victim is dead or alive while committing sexual acts. Of fenders report sexual gratification levels raised the more tortured and mutilated the victim is. The weapons of choice are usually those that require close range. The time between each murder decreases as the offender continues to kill. The second hedonistic motive is thrill. Thrill murderers primary motif is to induce pain of cause terror to the victim. They seek adrenalin rushes by hunting and killing their victims. These offenders kill just for the thrill of it and have no sexual aspect to the murder. The victims are strangers although the killer may have followed the victim for a period of time. These killers can abstain from killing for long periods of time. They refine their murder method after each kill in an attempt to become more successful. The next hedonistic motive is comfort. A comfort offender kills for a material gain or for a more comfortable lifestyle. The victims are usually family members or friends. After the murder the offender usually waits a long period of tim e before killing again to lower suspicion levels. The offenders are usually females and kill with poison. Most comfort killers have previous convictions for fraud, embezzlement or theft. The last hedonistic motive is power/control in which the offender kills to exert power over the victim. These offenders were usually abused as children, causing an inadequate or powerless feeling as an adult. The offenders often sexually abuse the victims but the abuse is not motivated by lust, it is motivated by domination. Female serial murderers are classified separately then male serial murderers because of the drastic differences between them. Only one-third of female serial killers killed strangers (Benekos, 1995) compared to males who almost always killed strangers. The victims of female serial killers are almost always husbands, ex-husbands, or current lovers. They murder for personal gain such as insurance benefits, will allocations or estate. Sexual or sadistic motives are extremely rare and psychopathic traits and documentation of child abuse is commonly reported in these offenders. The method of preferred killing is usually poison or low profile. Evidence suggests that females are less violent and less aggressive. Female serial killers are known to have a borderline personality disorder and a lack of empathy. Female serial murdering is very rare and the rate of re-crime is less often than males. Profilers report that there are greatest risk areas for serial killers to pick their victims from. Jenkins (1994) suggests that the availability of perspective victims and the attitudes of law enforcement agencies toward those victims play a crucial role when choosing a victim. Reports show that serial murderers pick their potential victims on the basis of easy escape and the vulnerability level of the victim. The prefer killing in a place with easy access and the option to leave the vicinity without causing alarm. Urban subcultures and areas with isolated landscape are the most preferred killing location. Areas that contain high levels or elderly or poor people are the second preferred location. The derelict areas within a city appear to be a common target location, also young women in or near a college campus. Victims are often prostitutes, runaways and homosexuals. Most serial killing has occurred in the western states suggesting that it is a result of lifestyle, economic conditions and availability of potential victims. Serial killers tend to select victims near their homes or workplaces. 14 percent of serial killers use their homes or workplaces as the preferred location, whereas another 52 percent commit their murders in the same general location or region, such as the same neighborhood or city. (Hickey) All serial offenders are classified as having one of four different hunting patterns: hunter, poacher, troller, and trapper. The hunter chooses his victim near his place of residence. The poacher travels to another location to find his victim. The troller meets his victim in an opportunistic manner and the trapper has a job which allows him to meet his victim in the area he happens to be working in. Although it is most common for serial killers to be while, Walsh found that nearly 22% or serial killers in the United States have been black. He points out the there is extensive media coverage of white serial killers in the United States, but black serial killing goes unpublicized. The extensive media coverage of Bundy, Gacy, and Berkowitz cases have made these killers almost household names, but African Americans such as Watts, Johnson, Francois, and Wallace are practically unknown, despite having operated within the same general framework (1980s and 1990s). (Walsh, 2005) The second type of multiple murderers is known as the mass murderer. A mass murderer is a person who kills three or more individuals with-out a cooling off period. These offenders intentionally and indiscriminately kill often trying to exterminate entire groups of communities. The victims are often picked due to their ethnicity or religion. The killing occurs in one single location and the killer often commits suicide after completing the act. Mass murderers are divided into five different groups: perverted love, politics and hate, revenge/workplace, product tampering and school shootings. The different groups pertain to the reasoning behind the offender when killing. A perverted love offender kills out of depression. There are two different types of perverted love offenders: family murder/suicide and family killing. Family murder/ suicide are when an individual is unable to differential between himself and his family. He sees his family members as part of himself. He believes that if he isnt able to find happiness for himself then his extended self (family) is unable to find happiness also. This offender will kill his entire family before taking his own life. He truly believes he is saving his family from future suffering. This offender is egocentric and does not allow the family to have a different opinion that he does. The second type or perverted love is family killing. This offender kills to protect his family. The killing does not involve suicide. An example of family killing is a father of his daughters son killing his entire family when his wife threatens to divorce him. His reasoning for killing was to protect the family name. The next type of mass murder is classified under politics and hate. This type of murder is more commonly known as suicide bombers. The offenders believe that they are doing well for the world because they are eliminating a number of people who have different views than they do. The offender is usually single, between the ages of 17 and 33 and has some or full high school education. The victims are random. A different, subtype under suicide bombers are set and run killers. They have the same intentions as suicide bombers but instead of taking their own life they set killing devices in motion and flee. A different reasoning behind mass murder is revenge. These offenders want to payback someone who has humiliated them. They do not accept blame for their actions but instead are irrational and blame others. The revenge offender is known as the disgruntled employee. These offenders see their career as the only meaningful part of their lives. The attack usually formulates when the offender sees his salary or status as disappearing or having no chance for opportunity. They are incapable of coping with their problems by change. The average age of this killer is 38; he experiences frequent chronic isolation and has no significant criminal record. His assault is planned and his victims are specifically chosen. The victims appear to be either the boss of the offender, a co-worker who recently received a promotion, or a socially adequate co-worker. The fourth categories of mass murders are those involved with product tampering. These offenders sabotage a commercial product usually for commercial gain. The offender usually expects financial gain either through litigation on behalf of the victim (wrongful death), through extortion, or through business operations. (Ressler, 1992) The most common method of product tampering it to inject cyanide into products. Cyanide is the poison of choice because of its potency and availability. When news gets out that there is a problem with a product, many cases are illegitimately filed by false complaints from people seeking monetary claims. School shootings are the last category of mass murder. School shootings are very rare but highly publicized. Investigations show that there are two common characteristics of school shooters: peer rejection and social rejection. 70% of school shooters were termed loners by fellow classmates. 62% abused drugs or alcohol and 43% were bullied by others. (Bordua, 1962) These offenders have a history of violence including violence toward people, humans and property. They often report having violent fantasies, atypical depression and mixed personality disorders. School shooters typically kill in pairs, have easy access to firearms, and have told at least one person about their plan to kill which is typically very detailed. Other students usually encourage the attacks. The victims of school shooters are usually students who bullied, harassed or picked on the offender. Almost  ¾ of school shooters made suicidal gestures before attacking. The academic standings of school shooters range from failing to excellent. The family situation or home life of the offender may range from very good to bad, and most offenders engage in some behavior that caused concern of indicated a need for help. The next type of multiple murderers is the spree killer. A spree offender kills two or more victims in a short duration without a cooling off period. They kill at two or more locations with almost no time break between murders. (US Bureau of Justice Statistics) It is the lack of the cooling off period that marks the difference between spree killers and serial killers. Lastly is the angel of death. The angel of death is a person who makes a career out of killing others. They are usually drawn to the medical fields. These offenders will take the life of their patient only because they have the power to. They make the death look to others like a natural cause when the reality is that the person would have made it. Something they torture their victims with unusual medications. These offenders have pathological interests in the power of life and death. Now we are going to make a transition from pre-identification of the offender to a method of understanding the reasoning behind to offenders action after they have been caught. The investigator will first ask the offender series of questions relating back to their childhood until the present day. This is to get an understanding of why the offender believes he murdered. This will also show the lifestyles of the offender and aid in future research of early risk factors. Next the offender will be tested for any psychotic disorders and then will undergo a forensic hypnosis. The hypnosis can bring forward long-forgotten or even repressed childhood memories. This process will either cause hypnotic hyper amnesia which is the enhancement or revival of memory or it will cause non-hypnotic hyper amnesia which is the revival of memories through non-hypnotic methods such as free association, fantasy and recall techniques. The investigator will try to obtain as many specific details as possible f rom the offender to help with future research. Unfortunately there is limited research available on and multiple murder situations where the offender commits suicide. This is because the facts and resources are limited to anything left behind by the offender instead of documented reporting straight from the offender himself. Up to this point we have been discussing the methods of investigation and the characteristics and profiles of each type of multiple murderers. Now we are going to look at a few famous cases of multiple murderers and point out the evidence of crime scene investigation, profiling, and classification into serial killing, mass murder or spree murder. The first case we are going to look at is Ted Bundy. Ted Bundy fits the typical serial killer classification to a T. He is a white male who is in his 20s or 30s and experienced an atypical childhood. He went on a three year killing spree eventually confessing to 30 different murders. He used his good looks to lure victims and often pretended he was injured to get sympathy. When looking at the personality of Ted Bundy he displays certain early risk factors. He was born to an unwed mother whose parents wanted to avoid the social stigma of having an illegitimate grandchild born to a young mother. As a result Teds grandparents claimed him as their own and Ted grew up believing that his mother was actually his sister. No one knows who his biological father was and he was not told the truth about his mother until his second year of college. Another early risk factor for Bundy was that he began showing violence at only 15 years old. His Aunt Julia recalls an incident of lying down for a nap in her home and waking up to find knives surrounding her and a smiling three year old Bundy at her side. He was assumed to have picked up some of his ways by following his grandfather as a role model. His grandfather was known to have tortured animals, abuse the family dog, and was even said to have swung the neighborhood cats around by their tails. Ted was said to have been fascinated my mutilating animals. He was known to be a habitual liar. He compulsively stole and shoplifter. He later claimed that he was also involved in voyeurism at a young age specifically by peeping into peoples windows and was arrested twice as a juvenile. Although it is impossible to predict who will become a serial killer, Bundy portrayed many predictive behaviors including cruelty to animals, bedwetting, lying, drugs and alcohol abuse, and an extended hist ory of violence. Anti-social personality disorder is a mental disorder defined as the essential feature for the diagnosis is a pervasive pattern of disregard for and violations of, the rights of others that begins in childhood or early adolescence and continues into adulthood. (Clinard, Quinney, 1973) Deceit and manipulation are considered essential features in this disorder. The individual must be age 18 or older as well as have a documented history of a conduct disorder before the age of 15. People having anti-social personality disorders are also know as sociopaths and psychopaths. Bundy had many aspects of anti-social personality disorder. He failed to conform to social norms. When he began sneaking out of his house and peeping into other peoples windows he reported those behaviors to be sexually arousing and often masturbated while doing them. He was deceitful. He had a disregard for safety of others. He occasionally would disable a womans car to make her more vulnerable, without actually doing anything to her. (Hickey, 1997) He lacked remorse. He brutally murdered thirty women and was so irrational about it he did not believe he did anything wrong. Bundy suffered from both psychopathic disorders and antisocial personality disorder. He was classified as manic depressive and a narsopath. He showed symptoms of the psychopathic triad (bedwetting, fire setting, and torturing animals). Bundy used the same hunting pattern nearly every time. He drove a VW Beetle in which he would remove the passenger seat when he went out hunting. He used his wit and charm on females to get them to come over to his car and then he would beat each girl over the head with an iron crow bar. The semi-conscious victim was then dragged out of the car and driven to Bundys murder site, Taylor Mountain. He would then put a mask on and use hand cuffs or rope to give his victims and even more helpless appeal. He chose his murder destination wisely because he knew he would be undisturbed while he raped and killed. After finishing, Bundy would bury the body and drive back home to Seattle to resume his respectable life. Although Bundy displayed many patterns of hunting, he was classified as a Troller mainly because he would be out and randomly encounter his next victim which he would then stalk until ready to kill. He also showed characteristics of a trapper by luring young women to his aid with a fake cast, posing as a police officer, and using his charm to seduce and take advantage of his victims. Bundy kept body parts to preserve the high he got from killing. This classifies him as a trophy offender. His modus operandi was clubbing women over the head with an iron bar and strangling them. Having a troublesome childhood and being lied to at an early age put Bundy at risk for conduct disorders. He was then made fun of at school and only dated twice in his life before reaching college. He did not want the companionship of a woman but only the popularity that came along with having one. He walked around with beautiful females just for the attention, just to be noticed. He did not trust women throughout his life. He lacked a good bond with females and combining that with his very stimulated sexual nature took out his anger towards females in the wrong way. The next case I want to look at is the Columbine High School massacre. On April 20, 1999 two students of Columbine High School, Eric Harris and Dylan Klebold, led a massacre which killed 13 people and injured 21 others before taking their own lives. Early warning signs arose when Eric Harris first created a private website on American Online where he posted blogs which told of his anger against society. He included death threats about a former friend of his, Brooks Brown. He also had a blog about his negative thoughts towards parents, school and his friends. He began writing how-tos including how to cause mischief and how to make explosives. He blogged about the detailed trouble that himself and Dylan were causing. His blogs were very low profile and no one really knew or payed much attention to the boys writings until Brooks Browns mother was informed of the website and read the death threats against her son. Browns mother made multiple complaints to the sheriff department about the site but wasnt taken seriously until it was di